نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیارگروه آموزشی آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز

2 دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه، تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد گروه اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

4 رئیس پیش‌بینی اداره کل هواشناسی استان آذربایجان شرقی، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

هدف از این تحقیق، بررسی میزان دقت داده‌های بارش‌های شدید (بارش‌های 25 میلی‌متر به بالا) رادار هواشناسی تبریز در یک دوره 8 ساله (2021-2014) و مقایسه آن‌ها با داده‌های ایستگاهای سینوپتیک در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه می‌باشد. برای مقایسه و ارزیابی بین داده‌های ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی و رادار از آماره‌هایی نظیر، ضریب همبستگی (R) و مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)،... استفاده شد. مقایسه نقشه‌های حاصل از رادار داپلر و ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک نشان داد که توزیع فضایی بارش حاصل از دو پایگاه داده یکسان نبوده و نواحی کم بارش و پربارش منطبق بر یکدیگر نیستند، به طوری که ضریب همبستگی بین بارش رادار و مشاهده شده 25/0 می-باشد. همچنین نتایج آزمون کلموگروف- اسمیرنوف نشان داد که با توجه به اینکه p-value حاصل شده (000/0) عددی کوچکتر از مقدار خطای آزمون (05/0) است، پس اختلاف بین داده‌های بارش رادار و مشاهدات زمینی معنی‌دار است. در واقع مقادیر بارش ثبت شده در ایستگاه‌های زمینی و رادار نتیجه واحدی را ارائه نمی‌دهند و هر دو جامعه آماری از توزیع یکنواختی برخوردار نیستند بنابراین داده‌های بارش رادار نمی‌تواند به جای داده‌های بارش ایستگاه‌ها استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Validation of Doppler radar in estimating intensive daily rainfall in Urmia Lake catchment

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hashem Rostamzadeh 1
  • Mir Kamel Hosseini 2
  • Saeed Jahanbakhsh asl 3
  • Mohammad Omidfar 4

1 Associate Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz

2 Ph.D. Student of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz

3 Professor of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz

4 Head Forecaster of East Azarbaijan Meteorology

چکیده [English]

The aim of this research is to investigate the accuracy of the heavy rainfall data (rainfalls of 25 mm or more) of Tabriz weather radar in a period of 8 years (2014-2021) and compare them with synoptic station data in basin. To compare and evaluate between meteorological stations and radar data, statistics such as, correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used. The comparison of the maps obtained from Doppler radar and rain gauge stations showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation from the two databases was not the same and the low and high rainfall areas did not match each other, so that the correlation coefficient between the radar and observed precipitation was 0.25. Also, the results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that considering that the obtained p-value (0.000) is smaller than the error value of the test (0.05), then the difference between radar precipitation data and ground observations is significant. In fact, the rainfall values recorded in the ground and radar stations do not provide a single result, and none of the statistical populations have a uniform distribution, therefore the radar rainfall data cannot be used instead of the rainfall data of the stations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Statistical Test
  • Heavy Precipitation
  • Doppler RadarUrmia Lake Catchment Area
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