پهنه‌بندی تطبیقی سیلاب در حوضه آبخیز چشمه‌کیله، تنکابن

صفاری, امیر; محمدی, سارا; احمدآبادی, علی; دارابی, سحر

doi:10.22034/hyd.2022.53222.1654

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، ایران

² دانشجوی دکتری ژئومورفولوژی دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، ایران

³ استادیار گروه جغرافیا دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، ایران

⁴ استادیارگروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22034/hyd.2022.53222.1654

چکیده

سیلاب یکی از مهمترین خطرات طبیعی است که اغلب با تأثیرات عظیم سالانه میلیون‌ها نفر را در سراسر جهان تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد. در سال‌های اخیر به دلیل وقوع سیلاب‌هـای مکـرر در حوضۀ آبخیز رودخانه‌ چشمه‌کیله و متعاقـب آن ایجـاد خسـارات ناشـی از سیلاب، لزوم توجه به پهنه‌بندی خطر سیل‌خیزی حوضـۀ مـورد بررسی بیش از پیش نمایان می‌شود. در بین روش‌های مختلف برای تهیه نقشه‌های پهنه‌بندی سیلاب، روش‌های آماری به علت سادگی در عمل و نیز دقت قابل قبول، بیشتر مورد توجه قرار می‌گیرند. هدف از این پژوهش مقایسه قابلیت اعتماد مدل‌های آنتروپی شانون، نسبت فراوانی و وزن شاهد در زمینه پهنه‌بندی سیل‌خیزی حوضه آبخیز چشمه‌کیله است. در این تحقیق از معیارهای شیب، طبقات ارتفاعی، جنس خاک، شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی، فاصله از رودخانه، زمین‌شناسی، کاربری اراضی، تراکم آبراهه، NDVI و بارندگی استفاده شده است. احتمال رخداد سیلاب برای هر کلاس از هر پارامتر محاسبه شده است. وزن‌های محاسبه شده برای هر کلاس در نرم‌افزار GIS ARCدر لایه‌های مربوطه اعمال شده و نقشه‌های پهنه‌بندی سیلاب منطقه به دست آمد. نقشه‌های نهایی حاصل از اجرای این سه مدل در منطقه به 3 طبقه کم خطر، متوسط و پرخطر تقسیم شدند. و نهایتا قابلیت اعتماد هر یک از مدل‌ها با استفاده از منحنی مشخصه عملکرد سیستم (ROC) ارزیابی شدند. نتایج نشان داده است که تکنیک نسبت فراوانی (FR)، وزن شاهد (WOE) و آنتروپی شانون (SE) به ترتیب اولویت، دارای بیشترین دقت در پیش‌بینی وقوع سیلاب هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

هیدروژئومورفولوژی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Adaptive flood zoning in Cheshmekile watershed, Tenkabon

نویسندگان [English]

Amir Saffari ¹
Sara Mohammadi ²
Ali Ahmadabadi ³
Sahar Darabi ⁴

¹ Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Khorazmi University, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D student of Geomorphology, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

³ -Assistant Professor of Department of Geography, Khwarazmi University, Tehran, Iran

⁴ Assistant Professor of Department of Geography, Khuarazmi University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Floods are one of the most important natural hazards that often affect millions of people around the world annually with huge impacts. In recent years, due to the occurrence of frequent floods in the watershed of Cheshmekile River and the subsequent damage caused by floods, the need to pay attention to the zoning of the flood risk in the investigated basin is becoming more apparent. Among the different methods for preparing flood zoning maps, statistical methods are more important due to their simplicity and acceptable accuracy. The aim of this research is to compare the reliability of Shannon entropy models, frequency ratio and witness weight in the context of flood zoning in Cheshmekile watershed. In this research, the criteria of slope, elevation classes, soil type, topographic humidity index, distance from the river, geology, land use, watercourse density, NDVI and rainfall have been used. The probability of flood occurrence has been calculated for each class of each parameter. The calculated weights for each class were applied in the ARC GIS software in the relevant layers and flood zoning maps of the area were obtained. The final maps resulting from the implementation of these three models in the region were divided into 3 low risks, medium and high-risk classes. And finally, the reliability of each model was evaluated using the system performance characteristic curve (ROC). The results have shown that frequency ratio (FR), weight of evidence (WOE) and Shannon entropy (SE) techniques have the highest accuracy in predicting the occurrence of floods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

flood
frequency ratio (FR)
weight of witness (WOE)
Shannon entropy (SE)
Cheshmekile
North of Iran

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پهنه‌بندی تطبیقی سیلاب در حوضه آبخیز چشمه‌کیله، تنکابن

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 9، شماره 33 - شماره پیاپی 33دی 1401صفحه 147-127

دوره 9، شماره 33 - شماره پیاپی 33
دی 1401
صفحه 147-127