ارزیابی سناریوهای بهینه‌ تغییر کاربری اراضی و تأثیر آن بر واکنش هیدرولوژیک جریان در حوضه آبریز اهل ایمان

ضیائی, خدایار; اسمعلی, اباذر; مصطفی‌زاده, رئوف; گلشن, محمد

doi:10.22034/hyd.2021.44819.1578

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ آبخیزداری، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

² دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

³ دانشیار گروه منابع طبیعی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

⁴ اداره منابع طبیعی

https://doi.org/10.22034/hyd.2021.44819.1578

چکیده

تغییرات کاربری اراضی یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های زیست محیطی در بیش‌تر حوضه‎ های آبریز است. در این تحقیق تغییرات روند هیدرولوژیکی جریان با سناریو تغییر کاربری اراضی در حوضه آبریز اهل ایمان با مساحت 7771 هکتار واقع در قسمت غربی استان اردبیل مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این‌منظور مدل هیدرولوژیکی SWAT برای منطقه مطالعاتی اجرا و با استفاده از الگوریتم SUFI2 واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. نتایج مدل با استفاده از ضرایب آماری R2، NS و RMSE ارزیابی شد که در دوره واسنجی این ضرایب آماری به‌ترتیب 75/0، 71/0 و 31/0 و در دوره اعتبارسنجی به‌ترتیب 71/0، 68/0 و 18/0 به‌دست آمدند که ضرایب آماری به‌دست آمده در هر دو دوره نشان‌دهنده بالا بودن عملکرد مدل در منطقه مطالعاتی جهت شبیه‌سازی رواناب است. بنابراین با توجه به پتانسیل و مشخصات منطقه تأثیر سناریوهای تغییرکاربری اراضی دیم کم‌بازده به مرتع، تبدیل 50 درصد زراعت آبی به باغ و تبدیل 40 درصد کاربری مرتع به زراعت دیم دبی جریان ماهانه خروجی از حوضه آبریز اهل ایمان مطالعه شد. نتایج نشان‌دهنده کاهش دبی متوسط (17 درصد) در سناریوی اول و افزایش دبی متوسط (36 درصد) در سناریوی دوم است. افزایش دبی متوسط در سناریو دوم نشان‌دهنده کاهش ذخیره آب زیرزمینی در منطقه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.23833254.1400.8.27.7.8

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the effects of various land use change scenarios on runoff using SWAT model in the Ahl Iman watershed

نویسندگان [English]

Khodayar Zeiaei ¹
abazar esmali ²
Raoof Mostafazadeh ³
Mohammad Golshan ⁴

¹ watershed management,

² university of mohageg ardebili

³ Associate Professor, Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

⁴ Department of natural resource and watershed management, Astara, Gilan

چکیده [English]

1-Introduction
Watersheds are physical boundaries that include natural ecosystems and all human interactions. Land-use change in watersheds has been one of the major challenges in the 21^st century. According to the findings of some researchers, the effects of land use on water resources are more severe than climate change. The estimation of streamflow in watersheds with different land uses is one of the important issues in hydrological studies. In recent years, one of the most widely used methods to facilitate computation has been the use of computer models that represent the watershed response with high accuracy. Restrictions on access to sufficient hydrological data make the role of watershed simulation models more important. This study aimed at modeling monthly runoff using the SWAT model and assessing the effects of different land-use change scenarios on runoff components.
2-Methodology
The Ahl-e-Iman watershed with 7770.86 ha area is located in Ardabil province, which was selected to predict the effects of land-use change on hydrologic response. The SWAT model has been developed to simulate different parameters of the daily, monthly, and annual hydrologic responses. The curve number method in the SWAT model was used to estimate monthly surface runoff and output runoff yield. The main inputs of the SWAT model, including daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, were obtained from available data centers to prepare a digital elevation map (DEM), land use map, and soil map. The SWAT CUP program was used to calibrate the model. The input of this program is observational flow data and the output file is the SWAT model. The statistical indices of

Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were used to evaluate the simulation results of the model.
3-Results and Discussion
Sensitivity analysis and the model calibration were performed in 2003-2010. The validation of the SWAT model showed that this model had a high performance for predicting the hydrologic effects of management scenarios in the Ahl Iman watershed. The results showed that the model had high performance in both periods. The obtained land-use map was given to the model to simulate the effect of land use change. The results of runoff simulation with both land uses of the study scenarios compared with the base flow are given in Figure 1.

Figure (1): Comparing base flow with streamflow in the first and second land-use change scenarios
4-Conclusion
The performance of the SWAT model was evaluated in both the calibration and validation periods; therefore, this model was used to investigate different land use management scenarios. The results of the first management scenario showed that the average streamflow discharge was equal to 0.3 cms, which showed 17% decrease in discharge compared to the base land use discharge (0.6 m³). The streamflow discharge increased 36% compared to the base flow in the second scenario. Therefore, this scenario will reduce the water resources of the region in a long time.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Streamflow
Water balance
Monthly discharge
Water management
SWAT model
Ahl Iman Watershed

مراجع

Aawar, T., & Khare, D. (2020). Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow through hydrological model using SWAT model: a case study of Afghanistan. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 6(3), 1427-1437.

Abbaspour K.C. 2007. SWAT-CUP, SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs. Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag: Duebendorf, Switzerland; 95.

Aboulnaga M., & Mostafa, M. (2020) Climate Change Adaptation: Prioritising Districts for Urban Green Coverage to Mitigate High Temperatures and UHIE in Developing Countries. In Renewable Energy and Sustainable Buildings, 825-837, Springer, Cham.

Aghabeigi, N., Esmali-Ouri, A., Mostafazadeh, & R., Gholshan, M. 2020. The Effects of Climate Change on Runoff Using IHACRES Hydrologic Model in Some of Watersheds, Ardabil Province, Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 10(2):181-192. (in Persian)

Aguilar, E.; I. Auer, M. Brunet, T. C. Peterson, and J. Wieringa. 2003. Guidelines on climate metadata and homogenization. World Climate Programme Data and Monitoring WCDMP-No. 53, WMO-TD No. 1186. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.

AhmadiSani, N., Solaimani, K., Razaghnia, L., Mostafazadeh, R., & Zandi, J. (2018). Assessing the efficiency of Arc-CN Runoff tool in runoff estimation and its comparison in 1996 and 2011 years in Haraz Watershed, Mazandaran Province, Hydrogeomorphology. 16: 139-158. (in Persian)

Chen, Y., Srinivasular, A., Rajan, N., Morgan, C., & Park, J. (2015). Hydrological responses of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to cellulosic bioenergy crops in the Southern High Plains of Texas, USA. Global Change Biology.

Esmaili, A., & Abdollahi, Kh. (2012). Watershed Management and Soil Conservation, Ardabil, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili Press, 1, 6-7. (In Persian)

Esmali, A., & Golshan, M. (2020). Assessment potential of runoff and sediment yield using rainfall simulator and hydrologic model in Kozehtopraghi watershed. Range and Watershed Management, 1 (73): 19-31. (In Persian)

Getachew, H., & Melesse, A. (2012). The Impact of Land Use Change on the Hydrology of the Angereb Watershed, Ethiopia. International Journal of Water Science, 1 (4): 1-7.

Golshan, M., Esmali, A ., Shahedi K & Jahanshahi , A (2016).,Assessment capabil ity of SWAT and IHACRES model in simulation Khorramabad watershed runoff. Water and Soil , 29: 2-1) – 42. (In Persian)

Hemmatjo, M. H., & Aiobi, Sh. (2013). Assessment effects of changing the land uses to the sutaible land use in the main branch of Zaiandeh road watershed using the SWAT model. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 4 (43): 343-351. (In Persian)

Ildoromi, A., Nori, H., & Agabeigi, S. (2018). Assessment land use change scenarios and its effect on hydrologic parameters. Environment Erosion Research, 3(27): 86-99. (In Persian)

Kavian, A., Golshan, M., & Abdollahi, Z. (2017). Flow discharge simulation based on land use change predictions. Environmental Earth Sciences, 76(16), 1-17.

Kavian, A., Namdar, M., Golshan, M., & Bahri, M. (2017). Hydrological modeling of climate changes impact on flow discharge in Haraz River Basin. Natural Environmental Hazards, 6(12), 89-104. (In Persian)

Khavarian, H., Aghaie, M., & Mostafazadeh, R. 2020. Predicting the effects of land use changes on the monthly flow using hydrological model and Remote Sensing in the Kouzetopraghi watershed, Ardabil, Hydrogeomorphology, 6(24):19-39. (in Persian).

Love, B., & Nejadhashemi, A. (2011). Water quality impact assessment of large-scale biofuel crops expansion in agricultural regions of Michigan. Biomass and Bioenergy, 35, 2200-2216.

Mostafazadeh, R., Sadoddin, A., Bahremand, A., and Sheikh, V.B, & ZareGarizi, A. 2017. Scenario analysis of flood control structures using a multi-criteria decision making technique in Northeast Iran. Natural Hazards, 87(3), 1827-1846.

Naserabadi, F. (2012). Using SWAT model in monthly runoff and sediment estimation in the Gharasou watershed, Ardabil. University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, 138 pp. (In Persian)

Neitsch, S. L. Arnold, J. G. Kiniry, J. R. & Williams, J. R. (2005). Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation, Version 494pp.

Rafieyan, O., Darvishsefat, A.A., & Namiranian, M. (2006). The Area Change Detection in the Northern Forests of Iran Using ETM + Data. Journal of Water and Soil Science, 10 (3): 277-287.

Sadoddin, A., Sheikh, V.B., Mostafazadeh, R., & Halili, M.Gh. (2010). Analysis of Vegetation-based management scenarios using MCDM in the Ramian Watershed, Iran, International Journal of Plan Production, 4(1): 51-62.

Trybula, E., Cibin, R., Burks, J., Chaubey, I., Brouder, S. M., & Volenec, J. (2014). Perennial rhizomatous grasses as bioenergy feedstock in SWAT: parameter development and model improvement. Global Change Biology Bioenergy.

Utamahadi, M. A., Pandjaitan, N. H., & Rau, M. I. (2018). Land use change impacts on discharge analysis using SWAT model at Ciherang Pondok DAM catchment area. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 149(1), 012015. IOP Publishing.

Zarezadeh, Sh., Khorani, A., Bazrafshan, J., & Bazrafshan, A. (2018). Assessmnet SWAT model capability in simulation runoff in the Gamaseiab watershed. Range and Watershed Management, 70(4): 881-893. (In Persian).

Zarghosh. R. (2018). Land use Changes Modelling Using Logistic Regression and Markov Chain in the Haraz Watershed. M.Sc. in Watershed management. Sari University of Agriculture and Natural Resource Science. Faculty of Natural Resource. 125 pp. (in Persian).

Zeiaei, H. (2002). Principles of Watershed Management Engineering, Astan Quds Razavi Press, 542pp.

Zeiaei, Kh. (2019). Assessment of the effects of various land use change scenarios on runoff using SWAT model in the Ahl Iman watershed. M.Sc. in Watershed management. University of Mohaghegh Ardabili Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resource. 134 pp. (In

هیدروژئومورفولوژی

ارزیابی سناریوهای بهینه‌ تغییر کاربری اراضی و تأثیر آن بر واکنش هیدرولوژیک جریان در حوضه آبریز اهل ایمان

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 8، شماره 27 - شماره پیاپی 27
شهریور 1400
صفحه 138-123

ارزیابی سناریوهای بهینه‌ تغییر کاربری اراضی و تأثیر آن بر واکنش هیدرولوژیک جریان در حوضه آبریز اهل ایمان

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 8، شماره 27 - شماره پیاپی 27شهریور 1400صفحه 138-123

دوره 8، شماره 27 - شماره پیاپی 27
شهریور 1400
صفحه 138-123