پیش‌بینی تاثیر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر جریان ماهانه با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیکی و داده‌های سنجش از دور در حوضه ی آبریز کوزه‌تپراقی اردبیل

خاوریان, حسن; آقایی, مریم; مصطفی‌زاده, رئوف

doi:10.22034/hyd.2020.37489.1512

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استادیار گروه آموزشی جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

² دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

³ دانشیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری و عضو پژوهشکده مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی

https://doi.org/10.22034/hyd.2020.37489.1512

چکیده

هدف از این مطالعه مدل‌سازی رواناب ماهانه با استفاده از مدل Temez با در نظر گرفتن تاثیرات سناریوهای مختلف تغییر کاربری اراضی بر سیلاب در حوزه آبریز کوزه‌تپراقی استان اردبیل است. در این مطالعه از تصویر ماهواره‌ای لندست 8 سنجنده OLI/TIRS، مدل رقومی ارتفاعی (DEM)، داده‌های بارش، دما و دبی روزانه دوره 10 ساله (1381-1391) استفاده شد. طبقه‌بندی کاربری اراضی با استفاده از روش نظارت‌شده ماشین بردار پشتیبان انجام شد و ضریب کاپای 95/0 و صحت کلی 5/97 درصد بدست آمد. علاوه براین، باتوجه به وضعیت موجود کاربری‌های اراضی، مجاورت کاربری‌های اراضی و درصد شیب کاربری‌های اراضی در حوزه مورد مطالعه 10 سناریوی تغییرکاربری اراضی در حوضه ی مورد مطالعه تعریف و تدوین شد. هم‌چنین، نتایج حاصل از مدل‌سازی با استفاده از داده‌های دبی مشاهداتی ایستگاه هیدرومتری کوزه‌تپراقی واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. مقدار ضریب تبیین برای مراحل واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی به‌ترتیب برابر با 77/0 و 65/0 بود. نتایج نشان‌دهنده این بود که اگر تغییرات کاربری‌های اراضی در حوضه یمورد مطالعه در آینده براساس شرایط تدوین‌شده در سناریوهای احیاء کاربری اراضی3 (احداث باغ در اراضی کشاورزی آبی)، 4 (احداث باغ در اراضی کشاورزی آبی و احیا مراتع شخم‌خورده) و5 (احداث باغ در مراتع شخم‌خورده و کم‌بازده) باشد، حجم رواناب به‌میزان 4/3، 3/3 و 1/4 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. هم‌چنین، اگر تغییرات کاربری اراضی براساس شرایط تدوین‌شده در سناریوهای تخریب کاربری اراضی در سناریوی 9 (تبدیل مراتع پرشیب به زراعت دیم) و 10 (تبدیل مراتع کم شیب به اراضی بدون پوشش) باشد، میزان رواناب ماهانه به‌میزان 24/15 و 5/4 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

20.1001.1.23833254.1399.7.24.2.0

عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the effects of land use changes on the monthly flow using hydrological model and Remote Sensing in the Kouzetopraghi watershed, Ardabil

نویسندگان [English]

Hassan Khavarian ¹
Maryam Aghaie ²
Raoof Mostafazadeh ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Department of Literature and Humanities, Faculty of Natural Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

² M.Sc. Graduated in Remote Sensing and GIS, Department of Literature and Humanities, Faculty of Natural Geography, Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabil, Iran

³ Associate Professor, Department of Natural Resources and member of Water management Institute, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

چکیده [English]

1-Introduction
Land use change has significant effects on hydrological and ecological processes at different temporal and spatial scales. Many hydrological models have been developed based on the characteristics of the basin, available data and purpose of the study. To predict the characteristics of river flow, we need to develop the rainfall-runoff model to predict the flow for a long period of time. This study has been carried out for the modeling of monthly runoff using Temez model and then the effects of the different land use change scenarios on runoff components have been assessed.
2-Methodology
In this study the OLI-Landsat 8 satellite imageries, a digital elevation model (DEM) as well as meteorological and hydrological data were used for the modelling purpose. The land use classification was carried out using a support vector machine (SVM) method to create a map with 6 land use classes: dry farming, forest land, water body, pasture, built-up and irrigated agriculture. Then, the 10 management scenarios have been developed based on the field observations and taking into account the field characteristics, changes trend in the land use pattern, and the suitability of the study area for different land uses. In order to simulate the runoff, the Temez monthly hydrological model was employed. A 10-year (2002 to 2012) daily precipitation, temperature and runoff data were aggregated to monthly time scales. The calibration and validation steps were performed based on observed data. For calibration of the model, the first 6 years data and for model validation 4 years data were used. The parameters of the Temez model were calibrated based on the values obtained from the literature. First, the appropriate coefficients were found for each land use in the watershed and then the area of land uses in all scenarios were computed. Finally, the weighted average was calculated for the coefficients and appointment in Temez model.

3-Results and Discussion
The accuracy of the land use map was quite high. A Kappa coefficient of 0.95 and an overall accuracy of 0.975 was obtained. The accuracy of the modeled runoff was presented using R²coefficient, which was 0.77 and 0.65, for calibration and validation stages, respectively. The results of considering the land use change scenarios on the monthly runoff showed that land use reclamation scenarios of 3, 4 and 5 had a decreasing effect on the runoff by 3.4, 3.3, and 4.1 percent, respectively. Also the land use scenarios of degradation condition, 9 and 10 scenarios, caused an increasing effect on the monthly runoff to 15.24 and 4.5 percent, respectively.
4- Conclusion
The monthly hydrological Temez model showed relatively good performance in estimating monthly runoff values based on the data used. The results can be considered in predicting the development and degradation conditions in the study area.
Keywords: Land Reclamation, Land Degradation, Kouzehtopraghi Watershed, Land use Change Scenario, Monthly Runoff Feature, Temez Model
5-References
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کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Land reclamation
Land degradation
Monthly runoff components
Land use change scenario
Temez model

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هیدروژئومورفولوژی

پیش‌بینی تاثیر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر جریان ماهانه با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیکی و داده‌های سنجش از دور در حوضه ی آبریز کوزه‌تپراقی اردبیل

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 7، شماره 24 - شماره پیاپی 24
آذر 1399
صفحه 19-39

پیش‌بینی تاثیر تغییرات کاربری اراضی بر جریان ماهانه با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیکی و داده‌های سنجش از دور در حوضه ی آبریز کوزه‌تپراقی اردبیل

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 7، شماره 24 - شماره پیاپی 24آذر 1399صفحه 19-39

دوره 7، شماره 24 - شماره پیاپی 24
آذر 1399
صفحه 19-39