تله‌های ساختاری: ارزیابی تأثیر دوگانه مورفولوژی و کمیت توسعه ساخت‌وسازها بر فراوانی رخداد گرد و غبار محلی و منطقه‌ای:ه موردی:استان کرمان، ایران.

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی در دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز

2 Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

3 استاد آب و هواشناسی دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز-تبریز-ایران

4 استاد آب و هواشناسی،گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

10.22034/hyd.2026.70008.1824

چکیده

گرد و غبار یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های زیست‌محیطی در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک ایران است که پیامدهای گسترده‌ای برای سلامت عمومی، پایداری شهری و مدیریت محیط‌زیست دارد. با وجود مطالعات متعدد، اغلب پژوهش‌ها بدون تفکیک گرد و غبار با منشأ محلی و منطقه‌ای و بدون توجه همزمان به کمیت و مورفولوژی ساخت‌وسازهای شهری انجام شده‌اند.

پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیر همزمان کمیت و کیفیت (مورفولوژی و جهت‌گیری) توسعه ساخت‌وسازهای جدید بر گرد و غبار محلی و منطقه‌ای در استان کرمان انجام شد. داده‌های گرد و غبار از 11 ایستگاه سینوپتیک و داده‌های ساخت‌وساز از لایه GHSL برای دوره 2005– تا 2020 استخراج شد. برای تحلیل روابط، از رگرسیون دوجمله‌ای منفی با اثرات ثابت استفاده شد.



نتایج نشان داد که انسداد مورفولوژیک ساخت‌وسازهای جدید، قوی‌ترین عامل افزایش فراوانی هر دو نوع گرد و غبار است، به‌گونه‌ای که جهت‌گیری نامناسب ساختمان‌ها موجب حبس آلاینده‌ها می‌شود. همچنین، آشفتگی سطح در مناطق کم‌تراکم، گرد و غبار محلی را به‌طور معناداری افزایش داد. در مقابل، کمیت کل ساخت‌وساز اثری دوگانه نشان داد؛ از یک سو از طریق تثبیت سطح گرایش به کاهش گرد و غبار محلی داشت و از سوی دیگر با افزایش زبری و انسداد تهویه، برخی رخدادها را تشدید کرد.



این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که ساخت‌وسازهای جدید در استان کرمان می‌توانند به‌عنوان «تله‌های آلاینده» عمل کنند و مدیریت گرد و غبار صرفاً با کنترل حجم ساخت‌وساز امکان‌پذیر نیست. بنابراین، سیاست‌های شهری باید بر بهبود کیفیت طراحی آیرودینامیکی، جهت‌گیری ساختمان‌ها نسبت به باد غالب و تثبیت سطح در نواحی حساس تمرکز یابند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Structural Traps: Assessing the Dual Impact of Morphology and the Quantity of Construction Development on the Frequency of Local and Regional Dust Occurrence (Case Study: Kerman Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • saeedeh zaboli 1
  • saeed jahanbakhsh Asl 2
  • Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust 3
  • Mahmood Khosravi 4
1 Ph.D student, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz ,
2 Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz ,Iran
4 Professor, Department of Climatology, , Faculty of Geography and Environmental Planning University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The study assesses the impact of urban morphology and construction quantity on the frequency of local (WMO 07) and regional (WMO 06) dust events in Kerman Province. Dust data were obtained from 11 synoptic stations, and construction data were extracted from the GHSL layer (2005-2020). Using negative binomial regression with fixed effects, the influence of morphological obstruction (count_oblique), total construction density (built_total), and spatial clustering (HH/LL) on dust frequency was modeled. The Hausman test (P=0.048) justified the use of fixed effects. Results indicate that morphological obstruction is the strongest predictor of increased frequency for both dust types (WMO 07: IRR=1.025, P<0.001; WMO 06: IRR=1.027, P<0.001), suggesting that improper building orientation traps pollutants. Surface disturbance in low-density clusters (LL) significantly increased local dust events (IRR=1.026, P=0.029). Total construction quantity tended to decrease WMO 07 (IRR=0.970, P=0.074) while increasing WMO 06, indicating a dual effect of surface stabilization and increased urban roughness. The findings confirm that the urban structure in Kerman Province acts as a "pollutant trap," underscoring the need for policies focused on aerodynamic building codes and surface stabilization in sensitive areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban morphology؛ Local/regional dust (WMO 07/06)؛ Fixed effects regression؛ Ventilation obstruction؛ Kerman Province
  • Iran

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