پهنه بندی زمین لغزش در حوضه آبریز لنبران چای شهرستان ورزقان با استفاده از مدل MACBETH

روستایی, شهرام; حجازی, سید اسدالله; فقیه خلجانی, حسین

doi:10.22034/hyd.2025.68225.1804

پهنه بندی زمین لغزش در حوضه آبریز لنبران چای شهرستان ورزقان با استفاده از مدل MACBETH

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استاد گروه ژئومورفولوژی دانشگاه تبریز

² استادگروه ژئومورفولوژی دانشگاه تبریز

³ گروه ژئومورفولوژی دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی

10.22034/hyd.2025.68225.1804

چکیده

ارزیابی زمین به منظور شناخت و پهنه‌بندی عرصه‌های حساس به حرکت‌های دامنه‌ای، از پژوهش‌های مربوط به ویژه ژئومورفولوژیست‌ها است. مساحت این حوضه در محدوده موردمطالعه 8226 هکتار می‌باشد. محدوده مورد مطالعه در بین مختصات جغرافیایی ً07 و َ20 و ˚46 تا َ30 و ˚46 طول‌های شرقی و ً17 و َ 28 و ˚38 تا ً 52 و َ33 و ˚38 عرض‌های شمالی قرارگرفته است. هدف اصلی این مطالعه شناسایی عوامل موثر در وقوع زمین لغزش و پهنه بندی نواحی مستعد زمین لغزش است. بنابراین برای ارزیابی و شناسایی مناطق پرخطر، از 9 فاکتور مؤثر در وقوع زمین‌لغزش شامل فاصله از آبراهه، لیتولوژی، خاک، شیب، جهت شیب، طبقات ارتفاعی، بارش، کاربری اراضی و فاصله از راه ارتباطی استفاده گردید. با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره، به ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی خطر وقوع زمین‌لغزش پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می دهد که عامل شیب بیشترین وزن را دارد. بررسی نقشه پهنه بندی با استفاده از مدل MACBETH نشان می دهد که 58/4، 25/12، 01/25، 34/39 و 78/18 درصد از مساحت منطقه مورد مطالعه به ترتیب در پهنه های خطر خیلی زیاد، زیاد، متوسط، کم و خیلی کم قرار گرفته اند. نتایج ارزیابی عملکرد مدل MACBETH حاکی از دقت قابل‌قبول این مدل در پیش‌بینی پهنه‌بندی لغزش زمین است. مقدار سطح زیر منحنی (AUC) برای داده‌های آموزشی برابر با 86/0 و برای داده‌های اعتبارسنجی برابر با 88/0 به‌دست آمده است، که بیانگر عملکرد مناسب مدل در هر دو مجموعه داده و توانایی بالای آن در تفکیک نواحی مستعد لغزش از نواحی غیرمستعد است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

ژئومورفولوژی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Landslide Hazard Zoning in the Lanbaran Chai Watershed, Varzeghan County,Using the MACBETH Model

نویسندگان [English]

shahram roostaei ¹
seyed asadollah hejazi ²
seyed Hosein Faghih Khelejani ³

¹ HeProfessor, Department of Geomorphology, Tabriz University, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences,Tabriz ,Iran. ad of

² department of geomorph. Associate Professor, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, ology

³ Master's degree in Geomorphology Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, University of Tabriz, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Land assessment for the purpose of identifying and zoning areas sensitive to slope movements is a research related to geomorphologists. The area of this basin is 8226 hectares. The studied area is located between the geographical coordinates of 07, 20, 46° to 30, 46° east longitudes and 17, 28, 38° to 52, 33, 38° north latitudes. The main objective of this study is to identify the factors affecting the occurrence of landslides and to zone landslide-prone areas. Therefore, to assess and identify high-risk areas, 9 factors affecting the occurrence of landslides were used, including distance from the watercourse, lithology, soil, slope, slope direction, elevation classes, precipitation, land use, and distance from the communication road. Multi-criteria decision-making algorithms were used to assess and zone the risk of landslides. The results show that the slope factor has the highest weight. Examination of the zoning map using the MACBETH model shows that 4.58, 12.25, 25.01, 39.34 and 18.78 percent of the area of the study area are located in the very high, high, medium, low and very low risk zones, respectively. The results of the performance evaluation of the MACBETH model indicate an acceptable accuracy of this model in predicting landslide zoning. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the training data is 0.86 and 0.88 for the validation data, which indicates the appropriate performance of the model in both data sets and its high ability to distinguish landslide-prone areas from non-prone areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Landslide
Hazard Zoning
MACBETH Model
Lanbaran Chai

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