ارزیابی پتانسیل سیل‌خیزی حوضه تنگوئیه با استفاده از پارامترهای مورفومتری و مدل‌های آماری

پورخسروانی, محسن; غضنفرپور, حسین; کرمیان, فاطمه

doi:10.22034/hyd.2025.68487.1807

ارزیابی پتانسیل سیل‌خیزی حوضه تنگوئیه با استفاده از پارامترهای مورفومتری و مدل‌های آماری

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استاد بخش جغرافیای دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

² استاد بخش جغرافیای دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

³ دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد بخش جغرافیای دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

10.22034/hyd.2025.68487.1807

چکیده

پارامترهای مورفومتری ضمن توصیف ویژگی‌های فیزیکی حوضه، پارامترهای کمّی سیلاب مانند، دبی، زمان وقوع، زمان تمرکز، زمان تأخیر و هیدروگراف سیل را کنترل می‌نمایند، پژوهش حاضر سعی دارد پتانسیل سیلخیزی زیرحوضههای مختلف حوضه تنگوئیه را با استفاده از پارامترهای مورفومتری ارزیابی نماید. بدین منظور بعد از تعیین زیرحوضه‌های مختلف، 15 پارامتر مورفومتری برای آنها محاسبه گردید. سپس ارتباط بین پارامترهای مورفومتری و تعیین وزن تاثیر هر یک از آنها با استفاده از آزمون همبستگی پیرسون و آنالیز مجموع وزنی WSA تحلیل شد. در مرحله بعد برای اولویت بندی زیرحوضه‌ها به منظور انجام عملیات آبخیزداری و کنترل سیلاب از شاخص اولویت بندی زیرحوضه‌ها (SWPI) استفاده شد که این شاخص بر اساس روش ترکیب خطی وزنی (WLS) محاسبه شد. در نهایت جهت گروه‌بندی زیرحوضه‌ها از آزمون آنالیز واریانس و آزمون آماری مقایسه میانگین‌ها استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که، بر اساس شاخص SWPI زیرحوضه شماره 1 (31/724) اولویت اول، زیرحوضه شماره2 (8/617) اولویت دوم و زیرحوضه شماره 3 (196/570) اولویت سوم را برای انجام فعایت‌های کنترل سیلاب به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. همچنین براساس شاخص CV، زیرحوضه شماره1 با میانگین امتیاز 13/2 بیشترین پتانسیل سیل‌خیزی را دارد. بعد از آن زیرحوضه شماره 3 با میانگین امتیاز 07/2 و زیرحوضه شماره 2 با میانگین امتیاز 8/1 در رده‌های بعدی قرار می-گیرند. نتایج آزمون مقایسه میانگین‌های دانکن نشان می‌دهد که اگر چه ارزیابی پارامترهای مورفومتری در ظاهر تفاوت‌هایی را بین زیرحوضه‌ها نشان می‌دهد اما از نظر آماری بین سه زیرحوضه اختاف معناداری وجود ندارد و هر سه در یک گروه قرار می‌گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

هیدروژئومورفولوژی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the flood‐susceptibility potential of the Tanguieh basin using morphometric parameters and statistical models

نویسندگان [English]

Mohsen Pourkhosravani ¹
Hossein Ghazanfarpour ²
Fatemeh Karamiyan Karamiyan ³

¹ Professor, Department of Geography Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

² Professor, Department of Geography Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

³ M.A Student, Department of Geography Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran

چکیده [English]

Morphometric parameters, while describing the physical characteristics of a watershed, also control quantitative flood parameters such as discharge, time of occurrence, time of concentration, lag time, and flood hydrograph. For this reason, morphometric analysis is considered a low-cost, fast, and reliable method for flood assessment. This study aims to evaluate the flood susceptibility potential of various sub-watersheds in the Tanguieh basin using morphometric parameters and statistical models. After delineating the sub-watersheds, fifteen morphometric parameters were calculated for each one, and the relationships between these parameters and their influence weights were determined using the Pearson correlation test and Weighted Sum Analysis (WSA). Subsequently, the Sub-watershed Prioritization Index (SWPI) was calculated using the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) method to prioritize the sub-watersheds for watershed management and flood control operations. Finally, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and statistical mean comparison tests, including Duncan’s test, were employed for grouping the sub-watersheds. The results indicated that based on the SWPI index, sub-watershed No. 1 (724.31) ranked first, followed by No. 2 (617.8) and No. 3 (570.196) in flood control priority. Additionally, according to the coefficient of variation (CV), sub-watershed No. 1, with an average score of 2.13, exhibited the highest flood susceptibility potential, followed by sub-watershed No. 3 (2.07) and sub-watershed No. 2 (1.8). However, Duncan’s mean comparison test revealed that although morphometric evaluations appeared to differentiate the sub-watersheds, there was no statistically significant difference among the three, placing them all in the same group.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Flood susceptibility
Morphometric analysis
Statistical modeling
Tanguiyeh Basin

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