تحلیل حساسیت‌پذیری زمین‌لغزش با استفاده از مدل‌های دو و چندمتغیره در شهرستان چالوس

محمدی, مجید; امیری, مجتبی; دستورانی, جعفر

doi:10.22034/hyd.2025.68198.1802

تحلیل حساسیت‌پذیری زمین‌لغزش با استفاده از مدل‌های دو و چندمتغیره در شهرستان چالوس

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ گروه محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه سمنان

² گروه محیط‌زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه سمنان، سمنان، ایران

10.22034/hyd.2025.68198.1802

چکیده

در نواحی کوهستانی، حرکت توده‌ای و زمین‌‌لغزش به عنوان یک فرآیند فرسایشی مهم در نظر گرفته می‌شوند. مناطق شیب‌دار به لحاظ زمین‌شناسی و بوم‌شناسی حساس و شکننده هستند که منجر به وقوع زمین‌لغزش می‌شود. زمین‌لغزش‌‌ها این منطقه را در برابر بسیاری از خطرات دیگر نیز آسیب‌پذیر می‌کند. هدف اصلی این تحقیق تهیه نقشه حساسیت‌پذیری زمین‌لغزش با استفاده از مدل‌های آماری دو متغیره (نسبت فراوانی و ارزش اطلاعات) و یک مدل چندمتغیره (رگرسیون لجستیک) و انتخاب مدل مناسب برای این کار در شهرستان چالوس است. اولین گام در این پژوهش تهیه نقشه پراکنش زمین‌لغزش‌ها و تعیین محل آن‌ها روی نقشه است. این کار با استفاده از تصاویر گوگل ارث و پیمایش زمینی انجام شد. نقشه‌های مربوط به عوامل موثر از منابع مختلف تهیه و وارد محیط GIS شد. مدل‌های نسبت فراوانی، ارزش اطلاعات و رگرسیون لجیستیک برای تهیه نقشه حساسیت زمین‌لغزش استفاده شدند. منحنی ROC و سطح زیر این منحنی برای ارزیابی دقت مدل‌ها استفاده شدند. مساحت زیر منحنی برای نسبت فراوانی، ارزش اطلاعات و رگرسیون لجستیک به ترتیب 705/0، 721/0 و 811/0 به دست آمد. مساحت‌ طبقه‌های حساسیت‌پذیری برای نقشه حساسیت‌پذیری تهیه شده با استفاده از رگرسیون محاسبه شدند. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که تقریباً ۴۴٪ از منطقه مطالعه در معرض حساسیت زیاد و خیلی زیاد زمین‌لغزش قرار دارد. مساحت محاسبه‌شده نشان می‌دهد که این منطقه به شدت مستعد زمین‌لغزش بوده و توجه به این پدیده بسیار ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

ژئومورفولوژی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Landslide susceptibility analysis using bivariate and multivariate models in Chalus County

نویسندگان [English]

Majid Mohammady ¹
Mojtaba Amiri ²
Jafar Dastorani ²

¹ Associate professor, Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.

² Associate professor, Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

چکیده [English]

In mountainous regions, mass movement and landslide are regarded as a significant erosional process. Steep slope areas are geologically and ecologically sensitive and fragile, and the occurrence of landslides makes this area more vulnerable to many hazards. The primary goal of this research is to create a landslide susceptibility map using bivariate statistical models (frequency ratio and information value) and a multivariate model (logistic regression), and selecting the appropriate model for this task in Chalus County. The first step in this research is to prepare distribution map of the landslides and determine their location on the map. This was done using Google Earth imagery and field surveys. The maps of condiioning factors were prepared from different sources and entered into the GIS environment. frequency ratio, information value, and logistic regression as used to create landslide susceptibility map. The ROC curve and the area under the curve were used to assess the accuracy of the models. The AUC for frequency ratio, information value, and logistic regression were 0.705, 0.721, and 0.811. The area of the susceptibility classes were calculated for susceptibility map created using regression logistic. Results show that approximately 44 % of the study area is at high and very high susceptibility to landslides. The calculated area indicates that the region is highly susceptible to landslides, and paying attention to this phenomenon is very necessary.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Landslide
Information value
Freuency ratio
Logistic regression
Chalus County

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