نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار بخش جغرافیا، دانشگاه شیراز
2 دانشجوی دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
چکیده
سیل یکی از مخرب ترین بلایای طبیعی با پیامدهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی است که همه ساله تاثیرات بسیار مخربی بر سکونتگاههای انسانی و محیط طبیعی بر جای میگذارد، بنابراین؛ مدیریت جامع سیل برای کاهش اثرات سیل بر زندگی و معیشت انسان ضروری است. این پژوهش سعی دارد که به بررسی کاربرد مدل حداکثر آنتروپی (Entropy Maxent) در نرم‌افزار R برای نقشه‌برداری حساسیت سیل در استان فارس (حوضه شهری جهرم) بپردازد. روش تحقیق از توع توصیفی – تحلیلی مبتنی بر روشهای میدانی، آماری و مدلسازی است بدین صورت که ابتدا با استفاده از اطلاعات منابع طبیعی استان فارس و بازدیدهای میدانی نقاط سیلگیر (50 نقطه) مشخص شد در مرحله بعد متغیرهای محیطی مانند ارتفاع، شیب، فاصله از رودخانه، تراکم زهکشی، متوسط بارندگی سالانه، کاربری اراضی، نوع خاک و زمین‌شناسی انتخاب شد. با اجرای آزمون هم خطی چندگانه متغیر پوشش گیاهی و شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی حذف شد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین متغیرهای محیطی انتخاب شده، سه عامل ارتفاع، فاصله از آبراهه و کاربری اراضی بیشترین تأثیر را در فرآیند مدلسازی داشته‌اند. پس‌ازآن، منحنی مشخصه عملکرد گیرنده (ROC) برای نقشه حساسیت به سیل ترسیم شد که مقدار داده‌های آموزشی (943/0) و داده‌های آزمایشی (932/0) به دست آمد. در ادامه با استفاده از الگوریتم ژنتیک مدل بهینه و ارتقا داده شد. در نتیجه این نقشه حساسیت به سیل می‌تواند برای محققین و برنامه ریزان در استراتژی‌های کاهش سیل مفید واقع شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
Flood risk zoning in Jahrom urban basin using machine algorithm (Maxent
نویسندگان [English]
- saeed negahban 1
- mehri marhamat 2
1 . Associate Professor, Department of Geography. Shiraz University. Shiraz. Iran. Department of Geography, shiraz university
2 Ph.D Student in Geomorphology, Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabi. IranDepartment of geography, mohaghegh ardabili university
چکیده [English]
Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters with social, economic and environmental consequences. Therefore, comprehensive flood management is necessary to reduce the effects of floods on human life and livelihood. The main goal of this study is to investigate the application of the maximum entropy model (Entropy Maxent) in R software for flood susceptibility mapping in Fars province (Jahrom urban basin). First, by using the information of natural resources of Fars province and field visits, flood-prone points (50 points) were determined. In the next step, environmental variables such as altitude, slope, and distance from the river, drainage density, average annual rainfall, land use, soil type, and geology were selected by performing the multiple collinearity test, and vegetation cover and topographic humidity index were removed. Among the selected environmental variables, the three factors of height distance from the waterway and land use have had the greatest impact in the modeling process. After that, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was drawn for the flood sensitivity map, and the value of training data (0.943) and test data (0.932) was obtained. In the following, the model was optimized and upgraded using the genetic algorithm. As a result, this flood susceptibility map can be useful for researchers and planners in flood mitigation strategies.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
- Genetic Algorithm
- flood sensitivity
- Entropy Maxent
- ROC
- Jahrom
- iran
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