بررسی پایداری سطح آب زیرزمینی در دشت اسلام‌آباد غرب (استان کرمانشاه) و ارزیابی وضعیت آینده با مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو

اسمعیلی, شکوفه; مجرد, فیروز

doi:10.22034/hyd.2024.62351.1747

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانش‌آموختۀ کارشناسی ارشد آب‌وهواشناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه رازی

² دانشیار آب‌وهواشناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه رازی

10.22034/hyd.2024.62351.1747

چکیده

بخش عمده‌ای از تقاضای آب شیرین در جهان از طریق آب‌های زیرزمینی تأمین می‌شود. هرگونه ناهنجاری در آب‌های زیرزمینی به‌طور مستقیم بر زندگی انسان تأثیر می‌گذارد. از مهـم‌ترین عواملی که در نوسان سطح آب‌های زیرزمینی تأثیر به‌سزایی دارند، خشکسالی‌ها و ترسالی‌ها هستند. هدف از این مطالعه، بررسی رابطۀ بین شاخص بارش استانداردشده (SPI) به‌عنوان شاخص خشکسالی هواشناسی و شاخص منبع آب زیرزمینی (GRI) به‌عنوان شاخص خشکسالی هیدرولوژیک در دشت اسلام‌آباد غرب (استان کرمانشاه) در یک دورۀ 20ساله و پیش‌بینی وضعیت آیندۀ سطح آب زیرزمینی در منطقه است. مقادیر هر دو شاخص در مقیاس‌های زمانی 1، 3، 6، 9، 12، 18، 24 و 48 ماهه محاسبه شد. برای به‌دست‌آوردن رابطۀ بین دو شاخص، از ضریب همبستگی، یک بار در مقیاس‌های زمانی مختلف و بار دیگر با تأخیرهای زمانی 1 تا 12ماهه در شاخص GRI استفاده گردید. سپس داده‌های بارش آیندۀ دشت مورد نظر در یک دورۀ 20ساله با چهار مدل گزارش ششم (CMIP6) تحت سه سناریوی انتشار استخراج و با مدل SDSM ریزمقـیاس‌نمایی شد. نهایتاً داده‌های مدل CanSM5-CanOE انتخاب و برای پیش‌بینی وضعیت آیندۀ سطح آب زیرزمینی، وارد مدل رگرسیونی رابطۀ بارش با سطح آب شد. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین ضریب همبستگی معنی‌دار بین شاخص SPI 48ماهه و شاخص GRI 48ماهه در شرایط تأخیر زمانی 12ماهه مشاهده می‌شود که نشان‌دهندۀ تأثیر بارش بر تغییرات سطح آب زیرزمینی در مقیاس‌های میان‌مدت و بلند‌مدت است. نتایج پیش‌بینی سطح آب زیرزمیـنی برای دورۀ آتی بیـانگر افت سطح آب به-ترتیـب به‌میزان 17/5، 02/6 و 08/8 متر تحت سه سناریوی SSP1-2.6، SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

آب های زیرزمینی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the stability of the groundwater level in the Eslamabad-e Gharb plain (Kermanshah province) and evaluating the future situation with atmospheric general circulation models

نویسندگان [English]

Shokoofeh Esmaeili ¹
Firouz Mojarrad ²

¹ M. Sc. in Climatology, Geography Dept., Razi University

² Associate Professor of Climatology, Geography Dept., Razi University

چکیده [English]

A major part of the fresh water demand in the world is provided through groundwater. Any abnormality in groundwater directly affects human. Droughts and wet periods are among the most important factors that have a significant effect on the fluctuation of the groundwater level. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as a meteorological drought index and the Groundwater Resource Index (GRI) as a hydrological drought index in the Eslamabad-e Gharb plain (Kermanshah Province) in a 20-year period and predict the future state of the groundwater level. Both indices were calculated in time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 and 48 months. To obtain the relationship between two indices, the correlation coefficient was used once in different time scales and again with time delays of 1 to 12 months in the GRI index. Then, the future precipitation data of the plain in a 20-year period were extracted with four CMIP6 models under three scenarios, and then were downscaled with the SDSM model. Finally, the CanSM5-CanOE model was selected and its downscaled data were entered into the regression model of the relationship between precipitation and water level to predict the future state of the groundwater level. The results showed that the highest significant correlation coefficient between 48-month SPI and 48-month GRI values is observed at a time delay of 12 months, which indicates the effect of precipitation on changes in the groundwater level in medium and long-term scales. The forecast results of the groundwater level for the coming period indicate a water level drop of 5.17, 6.02 and 8.08 meters respectively under the three scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

GRI
SPI
Groundwater level
Atmospheric general circulation models
Eslamabad-e Gharb plain
West of Iran

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هیدروژئومورفولوژی

بررسی پایداری سطح آب زیرزمینی در دشت اسلام‌آباد غرب (استان کرمانشاه) و ارزیابی وضعیت آینده با مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 11، شماره 41 - شماره پیاپی 41
دی 1403
صفحه 134-115

بررسی پایداری سطح آب زیرزمینی در دشت اسلام‌آباد غرب (استان کرمانشاه) و ارزیابی وضعیت آینده با مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 11، شماره 41 - شماره پیاپی 41دی 1403صفحه 134-115

دوره 11، شماره 41 - شماره پیاپی 41
دی 1403
صفحه 134-115