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ارزیابی وضعیت خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی ،مطالعه موردی: زیرحوضه‌هایی از حوضه آبریز فلات مرکزی

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی رشته علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

2 دانشیار رشته علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

3 استاد رشته علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی طبیعت، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران

10.22034/hyd.2024.62269.1746

چکیده

خشکسالی، یکی از پیچیده‌ترین پدیده‌های آب و هوایی است که می‌تواند در اکثر مناطق جهان رخ دهد؛ اما تأثیر آن در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک بیشتر است و بررسی آن، در مدیریت منابع آب بسیار حائز اهمیت است. در این پژوهش، وضعیت خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی در حوضه‌های قم- کهک، نیزار- سلفچگان، مرودشت- خرامه و بیضا- زرقان واقع در حوضه آبریز فلات مرکزی با استفاده از شاخص‌های SPI، SPEI، RDI و SSI در مقیاس‌های زمانی 1، 6 و 12 ماهه طی دوره آماری 2004 تا 2023 محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که بیش از 95 درصد ایستگاه‌های مطالعاتی، تمامی وضعیت‌های ترسالی بسیار شدید تا خشکسالی بسیار شدید را تجربه کرده‌اند. شاخص SPI در مقیاس زمانی 1 ماهه در کلیه ایستگاه‌های مطالعاتی و شاخص SPEI در مقیاس زمانی 6 ماهه در 3/83 درصد ایستگاه‌ها و در مقیاس زمانی 12 ماهه در 7/67 درصد ایستگاه‌ها، خشکسالی را با شدت بیشتری نسبت به سایر شاخص‌های خشکسالی نشان داده است. بررسی فراوانی وقوع طبقات شاخص هیدرولوژیکی SSI در مقیاس زمانی 12 ماهه نشان داد که بیشترین طبقات خشکسالی در ایستگاه‌های شادآباد و خرامه مشاهده شده است. بررسی انطباقی مقادیر شاخص‌های خشکسالی هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیکی در هر یک از حوضه‌ها نشان داد که بیشترین همبستگی متقاطع بین SPI و SSI در مقیاس زمانی 12 ماهه در ایستگاه‌های سلفچگان و قلعه‌چم در تأخیر زمانی رو به جلو به اندازه گام زمانی 12 ماه برابر 574/0 و بیشترین مقدار همبستگی پیرسون در گام زمانی 12 ماهه مربوط به ایستگاه سلفچگان- قلعه‌چم (309/0= r و 001/0= p-value) است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Situation (Case Study: Sub-Basins in the Central Plateau Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Roya Ahmadi 1
  • Hoda Ghasemieh 2
  • Reza Ghazavi 3

1 Ph. D Student of Watershed Management Engineering and Sciences, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

2 . Associate Professor of Watershed Management Engineering and Sciences, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

3 . Professor of Watershed Management Engineering and Sciences, Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most complex meteorological phenomena that can occur in most parts of the world; however, its impact is more pronounced in arid and semi-arid regions, making its study crucial for water resource management. In this research, the meteorological and hydrological drought status in the Qom-Kahak, Neyzar-Salafchegan, Marvdasht-Kharameh, and Beyza-Zarqan basins located in the Central Plateau basin was investigated using the SPI, SPEI, RDI, and SSI indices on 1-, 6- and 12-months timescales during the statistical period of 2004 to 2023. The results indicated that more than 95% of the study stations have experienced all conditions from very wet to very severe drought. SPI index on 1-month time scale in all study stations and SPEI index on 6-month time scale in 83.3% of stations and on 12-month time scale in 67.7% of stations showed drought more severely than other drought indices. Examination of the occurrence frequency for the SSI hydrological index classes on a 12-month timescale also showed that the highest drought classes were observed in Shadabad and Kharamah stations. The comparative analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought indices in each of the basins showed that showed that the highest cross-correlation between the SPI and SSI on a 12-month timescale was observed in Salafchegan and Qaleh Cham stations with a forward time lag of 12 months equal to 0.574, and the highest pearson correlation coefficient on a 12-month timescale was for Salafchegan-Qaleh Cham stations (r = 0.309 and p-value = 0.001).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • SPEI؛ RDI؛ SSI ؛ SPI
  • Central Plateau Basin of IRAN
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هیدروژئومورفولوژی
دوره 11، شماره 41 - شماره پیاپی 41
دی 1403
صفحه 114-87
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  • تاریخ دریافت: 14 تیر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 شهریور 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 26 شهریور 1403
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