مدل‌سازی خطر وقوع سیل با استفاده از روش آماری وزن شواهد (WOE) در حوضه آبریز آذرشهر چای

رضایی مقدم, محمد حسین; مختاری, داود; رحیم پور, توحید; تقی زاده تیمورلویی, وحیده

doi:10.22034/hyd.2024.60081.1723

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ استاد گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز و انجمن مخاطره شناسی ایران، تبریز، ایران

² استاد گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

³ پسادکتری گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. تبریز

⁴ دانشجوی دکتری گروه آموزشی ژئومورفولوژی دانشگاه تبریز.

https://doi.org/10.22034/hyd.2024.60081.1723

چکیده

حوضه آبریز آذرشهرچای واقع در دامنه غربی توده کوهستانی سهند از اتصال شاخاب‌های متعدد که در دره‌های عمیقی جاری هستند، تشکیل می‌شود و همه ساله در فصل بهار با شروع بارش‌ها، شاهد رخداد سیل در این دره‌ها می‌باشد. هدف از این پژوهش ارزیابی عملکرد تابع شواهد وزنی(WOE) برای تهیه نقشه حساسیت سیل حوضه آبریز آذرشهرچای می‌باشد. جهت دسترسی به هدف مذکور، ابتدا موقعیت 82 نقطه سیل‌گیر با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای Landsat8 سنجنده OLI بر اساس سیل فروردین ماه 1396 تهیه، به صورت تصادفی به دو گروه 70درصد (57 نقطه سیل‌گیر) برای داده‌های آموزشی و 30 درصدی (25 نقطه سیل‌گیر) برای داده‌های اعتبار سنجی استفاده شد. سپس 14 فاکتور موثر در وقوع سیل ارتفاع، شیب، جهت شیب، انحنای شیب، فاصله از آبراهه، فاصله از جاده، تراکم رودخانه،TWI ( شاخص رطوبت توپوگرافی)، شاخص قدرت آبراهه ، لیتولوژی، جنس خاک، بارش و NDVI در محیط نرم افزاری‌ Arc Map و کاربری اراضی در محیط نرم‌افزاری ENVI5.3 آنالیز و موقعیت نقاط سیل‌گیر در هر 14 فاکتور بررسی و جهت اعتبار سنجی و صحت نتایج به دست آمده از منحنی مشخصه عملیاتی ROC استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر قرار گیری 19.56 درصد از حوضه در کلاس حساسیت خیلی بالا، 19.18درصد در حساسیت بالا، 24.61درصد در کلاس متوسط، 21.94درصد در کلاس کم و 14.68 درصد در کلاس خیلی کم از لحاظ آسیب‌پذیری سیل قرار دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

هیدروژئومورفولوژی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Flood hazard modeling using the weight of evidence (WOE) method in the Azarshahr Chai basin

نویسندگان [English]

Mohammad Hossein Rezaei Moghaddam ¹
Davoud Mokhtari ²
Tohid Rahimpour ³
Vahideh Taghizadeh Teimourloei ⁴

¹ Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Geomorphology, University of Tabriz and Iranian Hazardology Association,Tabriz, Iran

² Professor of Geomorphology, Department of Geomorphology, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

³ Postdoctral researcher of Geomorphology, Department of Geomorphology, University of Tabriz,Tabriz, Iran

⁴ PhD Student of Dept of Geomorphology University of Tabriz

چکیده [English]

Azarshahrchai catchment area, located on the western slope of the Sahand mountain range, is formed by the connection of numerous tributaries flowing in deep valleys, and every year in the spring season, with the onset of rains, floods occur in these valleys. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the performance of the weighted evidence (woe) function for preparing the flood susceptibility map of the Azarshahr Chai catchment area. In order to reach the mentioned goal, first, the location of 82 flood catch points using Landsat8.c2.l2 satellite images based on the flood of April 2016 was randomly divided into two groups of 70% (57 flood catch points) for training data and 30 percent (25 points) flood) was used for validation data. Then 14 effective factors in flood occurrence elevation, slope, Aspect, slope curvature, distance to river, distance to road, river density, TWI (topographic moisture index), lithology, soil type, rainfall, and NDVI in Arc software environment and land use in ENVI5.3 software environment, analysis, and location of flood catch points in all 14 factors were investigated. The ROC operating characteristic curve was used to validate and correct the results obtained. The results of the research indicate that 19.56% of the basin is in the very high sensitivity class, 19.18% in the high sensitivity class, 24.61% in the moderate class, 21.94% in the low class and 14.68% in the shallow class in terms of flood vulnerability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Zoning
Flood
Sensitivity
Azarshahrchai

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مدل‌سازی خطر وقوع سیل با استفاده از روش آماری وزن شواهد (WOE) در حوضه آبریز آذرشهر چای

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 12، شماره 42 - شماره پیاپی 42فروردین 1404صفحه 37-20

دوره 12، شماره 42 - شماره پیاپی 42
فروردین 1404
صفحه 37-20