نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

3 استاد گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکدهی برنامهریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

4 مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان آذربایجان شرقی/ تبریز/ ایران

5 استاد ژئومورفولوژی دانشکده برنامه ریزی و علوم محیطی/دانشگاه تبریز/ تبریز/ایران

چکیده

تغییرات میزان فرسایش و رسوب حوضه یکی از مهمترین عواملی است که بر بخشهای مختلف زیست انسانی و حیات 
طبیعی تأثیر میگذارد و پیشبینی این تغییرات بصورت کمی، که عمدتاً تحت نوسانات دمایی و تغییر اقلیم در مناطق 
مختلف صورت میگیرد، جهت کنترل میزان فرسایش و رسوب در دورهی آتی ضروری هست. در تحقیق حاضر به بررسی
و پیش بینی تغییرات فرسایش و رسوب در حوضه آبریز حاجیلر با استفاده از مدلهایGeoWEPP وSWAT اقدام گردید 
بر این اساس ابتدا با استفاده از دادههای وضع موجود ایستگاه سینوپتیک اهر و بهرهگیری از مدل SDSM به بررسی
تغییرات دورهی آماری2424-2404 در سه سناریوی 6.RCP2-5.RCP4-5.RCP8 اقدام گردید، سپس شبیهسازی و 
پیشبینی تغییرات فرسایش و رسوب تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی با استفاده از مدلهای مطرح صورت گرفت. خروجی
مدل SDSM حاکی از افزایش دما و کاهش بارندگی برای حوضه در افق 2404 اشد و بررسی نتایج شبیهسازی میزان 
رسوب مدلها نشان داد که در حوضه مورد مطالعه مدل GeoWEPP با انتخاب روش دامنه دارای سطح مناسبی در 
برآورد میزان رسوب نسبت به آمار مشاهدهای میباشد که مدل نهایی جهت پیشبینی میزان رسوب در دورهی مذکور 
حوضه انتخاب گردید. با استفاده از نتایج ریز مقیاس شده مدل گردش عمومی جو ، تغییرات رسوب در دورهی
آماری2424-2404 تحت سه سناریو مطرح فوق، به ترتیب 21/1 ،05/0 ،20/2 -نسبت به دوره مشاهدهای برآورد گردید. 
آگاهی از روند تغییرات فرسایش و رسوب در حوضه آبریز حاجیلر منجر به کنترل مناسب رسوب و ایجاد اقدامات از پیش 
تعیین شده جهت حفاظت و بهرهبرداری از منابع طبیعی در دورههای آینده گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulating the future state of erosion and sedimentation under the influence of climate change (case study: Hajiler River Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Bigham 1
  • S.Asedolah Hejazi 2
  • Mohammad Hossein Rezaei Moghaddam 3
  • Jamshid Yarahmadi 4
  • Fariba Karami 5

1 -Ph. D, Student, Department of Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz

2 Associate Professor, Department of Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz

3 Professor, Department of Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz

4 East Azerbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Training Center/Tabriz/Iran

5 Professor, Department of Faculty of Planning and Environmental Sciences, Tabriz University, Tabriz

چکیده [English]

Changes in erosion and sedimentation of the basin are one of the most important factors that affect different parts of human life and natural life. it is very necessary to receive these changes quantitatively, which mainly take place under temperature fluctuations and climate changes in different regions, in order to be more prepared to deal with its negative consequences. In this research, erosion and sedimentation changes in Hajiler watershed were investigated and predicted using GeoWEPP and SWAT models. Based on this, first, by using the data of the current situation of the Ahar synoptic station and using the SDSM model, the changes of the statistical period2020-2040 in three scenarios RCP2.6-RCP4.5-RCP8.5 were investigated, then simulation and prediction of erosion changes was carried out. and sedimentation was done under the influence of climate change by using popular models. The output of the SDSM model indicates an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall for the basin until 2040.And the analysis of the simulation results of the sedimentation rate of the models showed that in the studied basin, the GeoWEPP with the selection of the domain method has a suitable level in estimating the sedimentation rate compared to observational statistics. The final model was chosen to predict the amount of sediment in the mentioned period of the basin. Using the downscaled results of the atmospheric general circulation model, the sediment changes in the statistical period of 2020-2040 under the above mentioned three scenarios were estimated as -1.97, 4.45, and 2.98, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Erosion and Sedimentation
  • SDSM
  • SWAT
  • GeoWEPP. Hajilar River
  • Northwest of Iran
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