مدل‌سازی سیلاب در حوضه‌های آبریز با استفاده از تحلیل آماری و ویژگی-های مورفومتری (مطالعه موردی: حوضه‌های آبریز استان کردستان)

منبری, فاطمه; ملکی, امجد; نیری, هادی

doi:10.22034/hyd.2022.52966.1651

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی،گروه جغرافیای طبیعی

² دانشیار ژئومورفولوژی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه

³ هیئت علمی دانشگاه کردستان، دانشکده منابع طبیعی

https://doi.org/10.22034/hyd.2022.52966.1651

چکیده

تجزیه و تحلیل مورفومتری حوضه های زهکشی و شبکه رودخانه، نقش مهمی در شناخت رفتار هیدروژئولوژیکی حوضه زهکشی
ایفا میکند و در حوضه های فاقد آمار میتواند ابزاری مفید برای پیشبینی سیلاب باشد. از این رو تحقیق حاضر با هدف
مدلسازی سیلاب و ارتباط آن با متغیرهای مورفومتری با استفاده از رگرسیون چندمتغیره انجام گرفت. روش پژوهش مبتنی
بر استخراج پارامترهای مورفومتریک و تحلیل های آماری شامل بررسی ضریب همبستگی و تحلیل رگرسیون خطی میباشد.
در همین راستا ابتدا حوضه های مورد مطالعه با استفاده از نرمافزار 5.10 GIS ARC تعیین و حدود هر یک مشخص شده
است. سپس ویژگی های مورفومتری آنها استخراج شده است. دبی سیلاب نیز در دوره های بازگشت 2 تا 144 ساله با استفاده
از نرمافزار ایزی فیت بازسازی شده است. برای مدلسازی ابتدا رابطه خطی بین هر یک از متغیرهای مورفومتری به عنوان
متغیر مستقل با دبی سیلاب به عنوان متغیر وابسته مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و بعد از اطمینان از وجود رابطه ی خطی بین
متغیرها و دبی سیلاب همبستگی بین هر یک از متغیرها و دبی سیلاب محاسبه شد. متغیرهایی که بیشترین همبستگی را
دارند مشخص گردید که این متغیرها عبارت بودند از مساحت حوضه، طول حوضه و طول جریان سطحی. با استفاده از
رگرسیون چند متغیره اقدام به مدلسازی برای متغیرهای مستقل و دبی سیلاب گردید. نتایج نشان میدهد که هر چه دوره
بازگشت سیلاب افزایش مییابد ارتباط بین متغیرهای مستقل و دبی سیلاب افزایش می یابد به طوری که همبستگی مساحت
با دورهی برگشت 21 ساله 941/4 و با دورهی بازگشت 244 ساله 988/4 می باشد. همچنین مدل های ارائه شده با استفاده از
تحلیل رگرسیون چندمتغیره در دوره های بازگشت بالاتر از 21 تا 144 سال دارای اعتبار بیشتری برای پیشبینی سیلاب
میباشد. به طوری که ضریب تبیین دوره ی 1 ساله برابر با 321/4 و دوره 144 ساله برابر با 121/4 میباشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

هیدروژئومورفولوژی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Flood modeling in watersheds using statistical analysis and morphometric characteristics (a case study of watersheds in Kurdistan province)

نویسندگان [English]

fatemeh menbari ¹
Amjad Maleki ²
nayyeri hadi ³

¹ physical Geography department, faculty of literature and humanities science, razi university, kermanshah

² - Associate professor, Physical Geography Department, Faculty of Literature & Humanities Science, University of Razi, Kermanshah. Corresponding Author

³ Assistant professor, Geomorphology Department, Faculty of Natural Resources,University of Kurdistan, Kurdistan.

چکیده [English]

Morphometric analysis of a drainage basins and river network plays an vital role in understanding the hydrogeological behavior of the drainage basin . Therefore, the current research was conducted with the aim of modeling flood and its relationship with morphometric variables using multivariate regression. The research method is based on the destruction of morphometric parameters and statistical analysis, including correlation coefficient and linear regression analysis. In this regard, first, the studied basins have been selected using ARC GIS 10.5 software, and the limits of each one has been determined. Then, their morphometric characteristics have been extracted. The Flood discharge has also been reconstructed in return periods of 2 to 500 years using easy-fit software. For modeling, first, the linear relationship between each morphometric variable as an independent variable with flood discharge as a dependent variable was investigated. After ensuring the linear relationship between variables and flood discharge, correlation between each variable and flood discharge was calculated. The variables with the highest correlation were watershed area, basin length, and surface flow length. Using multivariate regression, modeling was used for independent variables and flood discharge. The results show that as the return period increases, the relationship between independent variables and flood discharge increases, So that the correlation of the area with the return period of 25 years is 0.609 and with the return period of 200 years is 0.677.also, the proposed models have more validity for flood prediction using multivariate regression analysis in return periods above 25 to 500 years.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Flood discharge
Return period
Multivariate regression
Morphometric variables
Kurdistan province

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مدل‌سازی سیلاب در حوضه‌های آبریز با استفاده از تحلیل آماری و ویژگی-های مورفومتری (مطالعه موردی: حوضه‌های آبریز استان کردستان)

مراجع

مراجع

دوره 9، شماره 33 - شماره پیاپی 33دی 1401صفحه 105-87

دوره 9، شماره 33 - شماره پیاپی 33
دی 1401
صفحه 105-87