Landslide susceptibility assessment in a part of northern Tehran city

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Associate professor in Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran

Abstract

Landslides cause loss of human life, financial damage, and disruption of infrastructure. The development of the Tehran residential area on the steep slopes of the North Tehran has increased dangers like landslides. The goal of this research is landslide susceptibility maping using logistic regression in northern Tehran city. After classification, the maps of conditioning factors and the landslides map were integrated in the GIS environment, and the landslide density in each class was calculated. Logistic regression model was used to create landslide susceptibility map in the study area. Using this model, the weight of the maps was calculated and the final suscepibility map was obtained by summing the weighted maps. The ROC curve and the area under the curve were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The area under the curve for logistic regression was obtained as 0.819, which, according to the provided standard, places this model in the very good category. Results show that approximately 27% of the study area is at high and very high susceptibility to landslides. The calculated area indicates that the region is highly susceptible to landslides, and paying attention to this phenomenon is very necessary. The outcome of this research can be an instrument for infrastructural development, land use planning and road construction. It is recommended that organizations such as Natural Resources, Environment, and Roads and Urban Development consider this map as one of the basic maps in discussing slope instability, to prevent further increase in landslides in this area.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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History

  • Receive Date: 26 May 2025
  • Revise Date: 27 June 2025
  • Accept Date: 02 July 2025

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