Document Type : پژوهشی
Authors
1 Professor in Geomorphology Faculty social science University of Mohaghegh Ardabili Ardabil
2 2- PhD Student of Geomorphology, Dept. of Physical Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
Abstract
In recent years, the Kandovan-Chalus axis in the north of the country (in Mazandaran province) has experienced numerous dangerous floods. Geological and topographic features, precipitation and human intervention have made the Kandovan-Chalus axis susceptible to potential flood risks. In addition to natural factors; lack of dredging, lack of proper watershed management and unprincipled human interventions have led to an increase in flood risks in the researched area. The aim of this research is to zone flood-prone areas and determine the priority of factors affecting their occurrence using the random forest algorithm in the Kandovan-Chalus axis. For this purpose, 9 land use indicators were selected: distance from the river, slope, height, failure to observe the river boundary, river discharge, waterway network, rainfall, and lack of river dredging. After determining the variance inflation factor and tolerance coefficient, in the next stage, modeling was carried out by entering the data related to the effective factors into the ARC/MAP10.2 software. Then, the random forest algorithm was used to determine the role of the effective factors in the occurrence of floods in the region. Finally, a flood risk zoning map was prepared in three very dangerous, medium-risk, and low-risk zones in the ARC/MAP10.2 environment. The results show that based on the flood potential map, the risk of flooding in the region is about 261.43 square kilometers of the region, 151.1 square kilometers of the region are considered low-risk areas, 118.3 square kilometers of the region are considered medium-risk areas, and about 118.3 square kilometers
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