Document Type : پژوهشی
Authors
1 Postdoctoral Researcher of Climatology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
Abstract
The SWAT model was used in this research to simulate the hydrological conditions of the Aras River basin in the future period. The model was calibrated based on the data of 1987-2006 and its validation was done in 2007-2014 with the SUFI2 algorithm and the SWAT model was calibrated based on the monthly flow rate of the selected hydrometric station. After selecting the optimal parameters and running the simulation in 350 simulator rounds, the values of the evaluation criteria were obtained in the calibration period and in the validation phase. To evaluate the water balance changes of the basin under the conditions of climate change from the downscaled data of the CNRM-CM6 climate model in the historical period (1985-2014) and the future period (2025-2100) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario were used as input data to the SWAT model. The findings showed that evapotranspiration of the Aras basin has wasted a large share of the precipitation of 272mm in the historical period and 351 mm in the future period of the basin, and the amount of infiltration and lateral flow, which are necessary to feeding underground and surface resources, is very low. Also in terms of land use, the minimum ET of the basin was calculated in the use of good pastures. Also, the findings showed that although in the future period the annual rainfall will be 79 mm more than the historical period, but a major part of it will be spent on evapotranspiration in the months of May to July.
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