Document Type : کاربردی
Authors
1 Professor of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Student of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
Abstract
Monitoring the fluctuations of precipitation in different geographical areas can reveal the behavior of this phenomenon in the coming years. This research investigates the precipitation condition of Ardabil Plain including Ardabil, Bileh-Dargh, and Kolour stations, and forecasts it in the coming years based on the output of CMIP6 models by CMhyd downscaling model. Using the statistical measures of R2, MAE, MSE, RMSE, and Taylor diagram, the observational data of the base period were compared with the historical data of 5 GCM models from CMIP6. Then, the best model was selected for each of the studied stations. The output of the top models were corrected for skewness by the linear scaling method. Then, for each station, based on the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the precipitation of 2023-2050 was predicted and its trend was drawn with the Mann-Kendall statistic. The results showed that in the eastern and western areas of Ardabil Plain (leading to the heights of Talash and Sablan mountains), the precipitation changes are increasing (2.80 mm). In Ardabil station, the MIROC6 model with a correlation coefficient of 0.94% and in Bileh-Dargh and Kolour stations, the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and 0.92% have the most accuracy in simulating the precipitation of Ardabil Plain. The results of the scenarios also showed that the precipitation changes in Ardabil station in the future period compared to the base period under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios will be 0.24, -6.36 and -2%, respectively.
Keywords
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