Said Jahanbakhsh ASL; Mohammad Hossein Aalinejad; Vahid Sohraabi
Abstract
1-IntroductionDetermining the temporal change of snowmelt or agriculture water equivalent of snow, predicting flood, and managing the reservoirs of a region is of utmost importance. Some major parts of the western sections of the country are located in the mountainous region and most of the precipitations ...
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1-IntroductionDetermining the temporal change of snowmelt or agriculture water equivalent of snow, predicting flood, and managing the reservoirs of a region is of utmost importance. Some major parts of the western sections of the country are located in the mountainous region and most of the precipitations of this region occur in the form of snow in winter. The runoff resulting from snowmelt has an important role in feeding the rivers of this region and it has a significant share in developing agriculture and the economy.Scientific studies have shown that climate change phenomena have significant effects on precipitations, evaporation, perspiration, runoff, and finally water supply. As the demand increases, climate changes, greatness, frequency, and the damage resulting from extreme weather events, as well as the costs of having access to water increase, as well. Therefore, evaluating the runoff resulting from snowmelt and the effect of climate change seems necessary for managing water resources.2-MethodologyGamasiab basin is located in the northeast part of the Karkheh basin originating from the springs in the vicinity of Nahavand. Its basin has an area almost equal to 11040 square kilometers that have been located in the east part having 47 degrees and 7 minutes to 49 degrees and 10 minutes geographical longitude and from the north part, it has 33 degrees and 48 minutes to 34 degrees and 54 minutes geographical latitude. This basin has an altitude between 1275 to 3680 meters.In this study, snow-related data required for simulation were derived from the daily images of the MODIS sensor. To this end, first, the snow-covered area of the Gamasiab basin was measured during the 2016-2017 water years using the process of satellite images obtained from the MODIS sensor in the google earth engine system. All geometric justifications and calibration processes of images were applied precisely in the mentioned system. In the next step, the output of the GCM model scenarios was utilized for calculating temperature and precipitation changes in future periods. These CMIP5 kind models were under the control of two RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and were downscaled with LARS-WG statistical model.Moreover, to investigate the uncertainty of models and scenarios, the best models and scenarios were selected for producing temperature and precipitation data of future periods; accordingly, the outputs of the models for future periods (2021-2040) having the basis period of (1980-2010) were compared using statistical indexes of coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results were entered into the SRM model as the inputs. In addition, temperature and precipitation data of meteorological station of the studied region as well as the daily discharge of the river flow of hydrometric station of Chehr Bridge (as located in the output part of Gamasiab basin) were used during the statistical period of October 2016 to May 2018. 3-Results and Discussion Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region and the appendage of Hec-GeoHMS in GIS software, firstly, flow direction map, flow accumulation map, and stream maps were drawn and the output point (hydrometric station of Chehr Bridge) was introduced to the border program of the identified basin and the basin was classified based on the three elevation regions.Producing temperature and precipitation data of future periods requires a long-term statistical period; accordingly, the meteorological station of Kermanshahd was selected since it was in the vicinity of the studied region. To be confident in the ability of the model in producing data in future periods, the calculated data had to be compared with the observed model and data in the studied stations. The capabilities of the LARS-WG model in modeling the mentioned parameters of this station confirmed the observed data. Moreover, the ability of the model in modeling precipitation was very good and acceptable; however, the most modeling error was related to the precipitation in Mars.In the next phase and compared to the basic periods, the mean of changes in average precipitation and temperature was measured in the studied stations during January and Juan of 2015 to 2017(for which simulation had occurred); as an index of changing the climate, this was entered into the SRM model under climate change conditions. During the simulation period (January to Juan), it had been predicted that the precipitation parameter would decrease and the temperature parameter would increase.4-ConclusionThe results of this study indicated that using the MODIS sensor could provide an acceptable estimation of the snow cover level of the Gamasiab basin, which lacked snow gauge data. Moreover, the results of simulation with the SRM model showed that the model could simulate the snow runoff in the studied region. As the main purpose of the study, the effect of temperature and precipitation in future periods was well stated considering the uncertainty of CMP15 series models and scenarios. The results of temperature changes indicated an average increase of 1.8 C. the results of precipitation also indicated an average decrease of more than 5%. However, decreasing precipitation in the cold months of the years had been predicted severely so that the reduction of precipitation in February was of utmost importance for feeding the snow cover and rivers, which had been estimated to be 20%. This happened while increasing precipitation was mainly related to the hot months of the year whose amount was insignificant and didn`t have that much effect on the runoff. Accordingly, due to the increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation in cold seasons, the results of runoff simulation have indicated a 24% reduction for 2016-2017 and a 29% reduction for 2017-2018 water years.
Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl; Majid Rezaee Banafshe; Hashem Rostamzadeh; Mohammad Hossein Aalinejad
Volume 5, Issue 16 , December 2018, , Pages 101-118
Abstract
Abstract
Introduction
Continuous simulation of rainfall-runoff is very important in many hydrological studies, including the effect of climate change on river flow, flood forecasting, and water resource planning. This phenomenon requires the identification of its components and formative variables. ...
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Abstract
Introduction
Continuous simulation of rainfall-runoff is very important in many hydrological studies, including the effect of climate change on river flow, flood forecasting, and water resource planning. This phenomenon requires the identification of its components and formative variables. One of the most important hydrological calculations for a basin is the determination of the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The amount of water conversion from rainfall to runoff volume depends on the climatic and the physical parameters of the basin. In the hydrological calculations of a basin, determining the relationship between rainfall and runoff is very important. Accurate calculation of precipitation and runoff at the basin level depends on the identification of its components, form-providing variables, and the use of an appropriate dependent model. The HEC-HMS software is a simulation-based hydrologic modeling software (with parameter optimization capability) developed by the US Army Hydrological Engineering Center whose first edition was presented in 1967 (Hydrologic Engineering Center, 2000: 4). In addition, in order to increase the accuracy of the input information entering into the HEC-HMS software, the HEC-GeoHMS has created an add-on called HEC-GeoHMS. One of the most important applications of this software is calibrating and estimating hydrological parameters in catchment areas. Due to the importance and the extent of using this software, many studies have been done.
Methodology
The catchment area of the city of Uremia is located in the western part of Lake Urmia. Its approximate area is 167.75 km2 and its geographical location is between 82 ° 44 'and 58 ° 44' eastern longitude and 32 ° 37 'to 48 ° 37' northern latitude. The height of the altimeter station is 1591 m and the maximum height of the basin (located on the border between Iran and Turkey) is 3574 m. Figure 1 shows the location of the Urmia Shahirchay basin in the watersheds of Iran and Lake Urmia. In this study, the HEC-HMS model was used to simulate surface runoff. In addition, the HEC-GEOHMS integration was used to map the basin model. For this purpose, the data of the temperature and the precipitation data of the synoptic station of Urmia and the daily flow rate of the river flow at the hydrometric station of the Bardesour (located at the outlet of the basin) were used.
Result
By obtaining the basin model by the HEC-GEOHMS add-on in ARCGIS software and creating climatological models, controlling and entering other necessary parameters of the model was implemented. In simulation of rainfall-runoff of Chacha basin by HEC-HMS model, in the period of 2004-2013, the best calibration and validation period was selected to minimize simulation error. The base course was divided into two calibration (2004-2010) and validation (2010-2013) periods. The calculation of this parameter is necessary for simulation in mountainous basins, which are mostly snowfall. In this study, the temperature index method, one of the complementary methods of day-to-day modeling of snow modeling, was used. One particular way is to consider the specific amount of snow melting for any temperature above freezing point. For this purpose, the catchment area was divided into altitudinal classes and the percentage of area of each sub-basin in each altitude region was introduced into the model.
Discussion and Conclusion
Based on the results of the simulation in the calibration and validation periods, as well as the evaluation criteria of the model, it was found that the HEC-HMS model had a high probability in rainfall-runoff simulation of Shahrchay basin. It should be noted that the use of the HEC-GEOHMS in the design of the basin model has played a large role in increasing its accuracy in rainfall-runoff simulation. In Yacoby's (2013) study, the accuracy of this model in the simulation of runoff was weaker than other models. It was probably due to not using the HEC-GEOHMS add-on and the lack of a synoptic station in the study area. Nevertheless, in other studies (e.g., Verenden et al., 2013; Borhani Daryan et al., 2016), the HECGEO-HMS add-on was a good result of the model's work, which is consistent with the current study. The results of this study indicate the ability of the HEC-HMS model to simulate the hydrologic behavior of the Chacha basin. In addition, the ability to use the GIS to accurately provide input for the model and view the output shows the efficiency of their integration. The present integration, with proper hydrometric data and precipitation, is able to accurately simulate rainfall-runoff phenomena.
Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl; Alimohammad Khorshiddoust; Mohammad Hossein Alinejad; Farnaz Pourasghr
Volume 3, Issue 7 , October 2016, , Pages 107-122
Abstract
Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl[1]* Alimohammad Khorshidoust [2] Mohammad Hossein Aalinejad[3] Farnaz Pourasghar[4] Abstract Temperature and precipitation are two important parameters in hydrology and water resources. The impact of climate change on these two parameters has been the subject of many studies and ...
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Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl[1]* Alimohammad Khorshidoust [2] Mohammad Hossein Aalinejad[3] Farnaz Pourasghar[4] Abstract Temperature and precipitation are two important parameters in hydrology and water resources. The impact of climate change on these two parameters has been the subject of many studies and studying atmospheric general circulation models is one of the best methods to estimate its effects. In the studies of climate change, lack of uncertainty in various stages of evaluation for the effect of climate change reduce certainty and confidence of the final outputs. In this study for analyzing the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature in Shahrchay basin and the effects of the uncertainty related to general circulation models, six atmospheric general circulation model and 3 scenarios, A1B, A2 and B1 were downscaled by using LARS-WG. For evaluating the uncertainty of the models and scenarios, the output of models in the future and based period were compared by monthly statistical indices, coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the best models and scenarios for producing temperature and precipitation data were selected for the period 2011-2030. As the results, the HADCM3 model under scenarios A1B was used for precipitation and the MPEH5 under scenarios A2 for temperature production. The results of this research showed that in the future period rainfall will be reduced about 9 millimeter, while the minimum and maximum temperature will increase 1.05 and 0.87 °C respectively. Disruptions of rainfall distribution and high temperature have significantly negative consequences than rainfall reduction. [1]- Professor in Department of Meteorological, University of Tabriz, (Corresponding Autor), Email:s_jahan@tabrizu.ac.ir. [2]- Professor in Department of Meteorological, University of Tabriz. [3]- Meteorological Graduate Student of Tabriz Universit, Email:aalineghad63@yahoo.com. [4]- Climatology Ph.D., Meteorology Directorate General of East Azerbaijan Province.
